We Have Way More Than 53 Years’ Worth of Oil Left The Motley Fool

Such how much oil is left in the worlds can be irradiated for very long periods and thus deeply burn their original fissile charge. China is experimenting the so called ‘pebble bed’ design which is very stable and very safe. The world energy demand will grow by 1/3 through 2040, driven mostly by rising consumption in transportation in China, India and parts of Asia.

In May, an IEA report concluded that there could be no new oil, gas or coal development if the world was to reach net zero by 2050. A UN report in December found fossil fuel production must fall rapidly to keep under 1.5C and avoid “severe climate disruption” but that countries were planning increased outputs. Virtually all unconventional oil or gas, such as from fracking, must remain in the ground and no fossil fuels at all can be extracted from the Arctic. The conclusions of the report are “bleak” for the fossil fuel industry, implying that oil, gas and coal production must have already peaked and will decline at 3% a year from now. States that are heavily reliant on fossil fuel revenue, such as Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, are at especially high risk.

This reflects a reduction of the temperature target from 2C to 1.5C and the fast falling costs of renewables and electric vehicles, with the latter set to significantly cut oil demand. The scientific study is the first such assessment and lays bare the huge disconnect between the Paris agreement’s climate goals and the expansion plans of the fossil fuel industry. The researchers described the situation as “absolutely desperate”. The fall in oil prices has helped, but even in the recent years of higher prices peak oil was not a concern. And in the decade since one leading oil expert, the late Matthew Simmons,predicted in 2005 that Saudi Arabia’s output would imminently peak, “Saudi Arabia’s March Crude Oil Output at Record High.” Global consumption of fossil fuels is rising by more than one per cent each year, according to experts.

These figures reflect energy consumption – that is the sum of all energy uses including electricity, transport and heating. Many people assume energy and electricity to mean the same, but electricity is just one component of total energy consumption. Fossil fuels have, and continue to, play a dominant role in global energy systems. Up to 2020, world oil consumption has been rising by about 60% because of growing transportation.

What share of primary energy comes from gas?

We pump oil into our cars, argue about it in politics and fight wars over it. And that’s without even getting into its role in global climate change. It is perhaps worth consideration what impact burning the remaining coil reserves might have on a changing climate. For gas fuel, you can refer to this guide about how much natural gas we might have left.

Another problem with estimations of remaining oil reserves is the fact they are necessarily blind to what we don’t know. While that sounds like quite a lot, estimates of 47 years are based on oil consumption being maintained at around 35 and half billion barrels a year, or 97 million barrels of oil a day. Based on the 2016 world population, that works out at around 5 barrels per person per year, or 0.5 gallons per person, per day.

Even if it remains technically recoverable, this is one more reason to take any global oil reserve estimate with a pinch of salt. Whatever technically recoverable oil the world has – is not all economically recoverable. It is precisely these improvements in exploration and extraction that make it hard to pin down exactly how much crude oil is left in the world.

• Yet those worrying about peak oil did not factor in the continual improvement of exploration and extraction technology, and the development of new methods to tap these finite resources.
• Oil is a rich source of organic compounds that are used in the manufacture of drugs.
• However, the actual energy return on energy invested to extract and refine shale oil is so poor that there has been no serious commercial exploitation of oil shale to date.
• Any switch away from it will likely require developing or discovering a suite of other raw materials that can plug the gap where oil used to be.
• With more widespread interest and development, using living plants and bacteria (rather than the remains of their long-dead ancestors) is a promising avenue to explore.
• Not only that, but we have also devised ways to recover gold from old used electronics.

Fracking involves the extraction of shale gas by drilling into the the Earth and pumping boreholes with a high pressure water mixture. It uses huge amounts of energy to get even more energy and also uses chemicals and metals which poison the groundwater and the environment. It is a growing technology which needs our critical estimation. For these reasons, among many, a sensible and planned transition from fossil fuels, like oil, to alternative resources will be vital for future peace and prosperity worldwide. “BP has provided an intriguing update to its global oil reserves estimate in the company’s latest yearly review of energy statistics.” Explore all the metrics – energy production, electricity consumption, and breakdown of fossil fuels, renewable and nuclear energy.

But, it can also be broken down by refined petroleum products production . Explore long-term changes in energy production and consumption across the world. This interactive map shows the share of electricity that comes from gas across the world. Gas is now the second largest source of electricity production globally.

It is so sticky that the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers often compares it to “cold molasses”. Producers like the CAPP have greatly improved their technological capacity over the past few decades which, by extension, has necessarily increased Canada’s proven reserves as a consequence. Estimating the remaining oil reserves of the planet is notoriously difficult, and frankly, subject to constant change. The reasons for this vary but are primarily dictated by our technological ability to exploit oil reserves in the first place and also the difficulty of estimating future demand. Estimates vary, but if our current consumption continues apace, we may well see a time in the near future when it is completely exhausted. In 2015, the reserve replacement ratio of the seven Big Oil majors—Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron, Total, ConocoPhillips, and Eni—fell to just 75%.

That oil, like coal and natural gas, is a finite resource is nothing new. It was this finite nature of fossil fuels that sparked the peak oil supply worry. Yet those worrying about peak oil did not factor in the continual improvement of exploration and extraction technology, and the development of new methods to tap these finite resources. The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries reports that there are 1.5 trillion barrels of crude oil reserves left in the world. These are proven reserves that are still capable of being extracted by commercial drilling. That figure may seem like a lot , but consumption rates are growing year by year.

But not all countries have gas reserves to produce this themselves. This therefore measures gas production before trade between countries. In the interactive chart here we see gas production by country.

Burning The Remaining Oil Reserves – Potential Impact On A Changing Climate

“The implies that many operational and planned fossil fuel projects unviable,” the scientists said, meaning trillions of dollars of fossil fuel assets could become worthless. New fossil fuel projects made sense only if their backers did not believe the world would act to tackle the climate emergency, the researchers said. The world consumes 17,527 cubic feet of natural gas per capita every year or 48 cubic feet per capita per day. There are 6,923 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves in the world as of 2017. Canada, Norway, Guyana and Brazil should add supply in the coming year, said Rystad Energy’s senior vice-president of analysis, Claudio Galimberti. U.S. oil production is expected to average 11.9 million bpd for 2022, according to EIA.

But coal is the world’s dirtiest fuel – it not only emits the most carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy, it has severe impacts on health through air pollution. It is still a dominant source of energy across the world today – especially within our electricity mix. This interactive map shows the share of electricity that comes from coal across the world. Electricity is one component of total energy consumption – the other two being transport and heating. While the world is gobbling up fossil fuel, we are also developing alternative fuels. While we can never know when that day may come, it is prudent that many industries explore methods of replacing crude oil-based raw materials before they are forced to.

In other words, technology has a big impact on what’s considered a proved reserve. However, other types of fuel exist such as gas fuel, biofuels, nuclear fuel, and so on. Both inverse.com and bbc.com discuss how some technologies are developing that may allow companies to break down some plastics and turn them back into oil.

The United States of Oil

Another avenue to explore is to recycle somehow or reuse existing oil-derived products. They have opened a new biotechnology campus in the U.S., which will be the first one in the U.S. to make commercial-scale renewable BDO using Genomatica’s GENO BDO process. The facility will be able to produce more than 65,000 tonnes of BDO annually after it is finished in 2024. The capacity for producing bioBDO will be increased threefold as a result.

So, while gold, as a resource, is being “used up”, in one sense, it is not being destroyed, per se. Of course, this “space stuff” is also by definition limited, but it is such an enormous quantity that it is, effectively, infinite. Until such time as we can do this, however, we will need to make do with what we have here on Earth. Thankfully, we humans have a great knack for getting better at doing things over time. Absolutely, we should definitely increase our emissions of CO2.

The interactive chart here shows the amount of primary energy from fossil fuels that is consumed each year. As fossil fuels begin to disappear, nuclear power is becoming more and more prominent because it is the only alternative base system capable of providing electricity continuously 24 hours a day. It was first developed in the 1950s and since then its safety features have been much improved.

The table shows the conversion of watt-hours to the range of SI prefixes used. In the interactive chart we see how this share varies across the world. Across the world we see that the largest consumers use more than ten times the amount of fossil energy than some of the smallest consumers. Fossil fuel consumption has increased significantly over the past half-century, around eight-fold since 1950, and roughly doubling since 1980. The fuel particles are embedded in a graphite matrix that is very stable at high temperatures.

How long until the earth runs out of fuel?

Whilst the original source of this concept – the American geologist Vincent McKelvey – visualised it as a static box, this transition between resources and reserve classifications is dynamic. As we discover previously unknown resources, and develop improved extraction technologies for economic recovery, this reserves box can grow with time . “Proved reserves” represents coal that we know with reasonable certainty could be recovered in the future under existing economic and technological operating conditions. In other words, we know it’s there and it would be technologically and economically feasibly to extract it.

The Union of Concerned Scientists believes there is enough coal to last about 150 years, while natural gases could last up to 50 years. Furthermore, the production of oil depends on demand, and the development of technology. Vehicles get more and more efficient when it comes to consuming oil, while new technology such as electric cars or hybrids can take a bite out of use as well.

As the future oil demand growth window shrinks, it is the quality, not the quantity, of proved reserves that has become the new mantra for oil company executives. Two reports this month gave diverging assessments of who rules the global oil reserves roost and highlights the disconnect between reported oil wealth and the ability to pump the barrels. Compares to “cold molasses,” has greatly increased its technological capacity over the past few decades, thereby increasing proved reserves substantially in Canada.

With more widespread interest and development, using living plants and bacteria (rather than the remains of their long-dead ancestors) is a promising avenue to explore. Let’s look at the current development of oil substitutes in various industries. So long as plants can grow on this planet, we can always have a supply of liquid fuels for our machines. This is especially true for economies that depend on importing staples like grain or other essential goods. We have been given a taste of this, so to speak, from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, for example.

Many predictions fall short because they too simplistically center on reserve years or the proved recoverable reserves divided by the annual consumption rate. Proved reserves grow over time, however, and estimates of the recoverable resource change as new information is acquired through drilling, production, and technological and managerial development. Another factor that affects perception is that oil companies adopt short- to mid-term planning horizons. Exploration is costly, so there is no economic incentive to look for resources that will not be needed for decades down the road.